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For epidemiologists, evolutionary biologists, and health-care professionals, real-time and predictive modeling of infectious disease is of growing importance. This book provides a timely and comprehensive introduction to the modeling of infectious diseases in humans and animals, focusing on recent developments as well as more traditional approaches. Matt Keeling and Pejman Rohani move from modeling with simple differential equations to more recent, complex models, where spatial structure, seasonal "forcing," or stochasticity influence the dynamics, and where computer simulation needs to be used to generate theory. In each of the eight chapters, they deal with a specific modeling approach or set of techniques designed to capture a particular biological factor. They illustrate the methodology used with examples from recent research literature on human and infectious disease modeling, showing how such techniques can be used in practice. Diseases considered include BSE, foot-and-mouth, HIV, measles, rubella, smallpox, and West Nile virus, among others. Particular attention is given throughout the book to the development of practical models, useful both as predictive tools and as a means to understand fundamental epidemiological processes. To emphasize this approach, the last chapter is dedicated to modeling and understanding the control of diseases through vaccination, quarantine, or culling. Comprehensive, practical introduction to infectious disease modeling Builds from simple to complex predictive models Models and methodology fully supported by examples drawn from research literature Practical models aid students' understanding of fundamental epidemiological processes For many of the models presented, the authors provide accompanying programs written in Java, C, Fortran, and MATLAB In-depth treatment of role of modeling in understanding disease control
Mathematical models are increasingly being used to examine questions in infectious disease control. Applications include predicting the impact of vaccination strategies against common infections and determining optimal control strategies against HIV and pandemic influenza. This book introduces individuals interested in infectious diseases to this exciting and expanding area. The mathematical level of the book is kept as simple as possible, which makes the book accessible to those who have not studied mathematics to university level. Understanding is further enhanced by models that can be accessed online, which will allow readers to explore the impact of different factors and control strategies, and further adapt and develop the models themselves. The book is based on successful courses developed by the authors at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine. It will be of interest to epidemiologists, public health researchers, policy makers, veterinary scientists, medical statisticians and infectious disease researchers.
Molecular epidemiology has recently broaden its focuses due to the development of molecular tools but also by incorporating advances of other fields such as mathematical epidemiology, molecular ecology, population genetics and evolution. Facing new risks of emerging and re-emerging infectious diseases that are threats for humans and their livestock, the objectives of molecular epidemiology include: - the development of molecular tools, genotyping and gene expression - the incorporation of concepts and results of population genetics of infectious diseases - the integration of recent advances in theoretical epidemiology and evolutionary ecology of diseases - a better understanding of transmission for the development of risk factors analyses. This book will demonstrate how the latest developments in molecular tools and in epidemiology can be integrated with studies of host-pathogen interactions. Besides a strong theoretical component, there will also be an emphasis on applications in the fields of epidemiology, public health, veterinary medicine, and health ecology. Students and researchers in the fields of epidemiology, animal and human health, evolutionary ecology, parasitology are the main potential readers of the book, as well as a broader audience from veterinary medicine and conservation.
"Geschichte ist die geistige Form, in der sich eine Kultur über ihre Vergangen heit Rechenschaft gibt" (J. HUIZINGA [208J). In diesem Sinne berichtet diese Ge schichte der Physiologie von den Wegen und Umwegen, Erkenntnissen und Irr tümern, welche in der historischen Entwicklung dieser Wissenschaft von wesent licher Bedeutung gewesen sind. Für die Art der Darstellung waren teils äußere Momente, teils bestimmte Absichten des Verfassers maßgeblich. Auf dem knappen Raum, der zur Verfügung stand, konnten nur die großen Linien des geschicht lichen Werdegangs unter Verzicht auf viele Einzelheiten wiedergegeben werden. Deshalb entfiel auch die Möglichkeit, den Entwicklungsgang spezieller Einzel probleme ausführlich zu schildern, wie es etwa F. LIEBEN [244] in seiner Ge schichte der physiologischen Chemie getan hat. Ich konnte aber mit guten Gründen in diesem Buche darauf verzichten, da ich kürzlich eine" Entwicklungsgeschichte physiologischer Probleme in Tabellenform" [342b] veröffentlicht habe, in welcher die schrittweise wachsende Einsicht in die Ursachen und die Bedeutung spezieller physiologischer Vorgänge seit Beginn der Neuzeit nach Autor, ,Jahr, Gegenstand und Veröffentlichungsort dargestellt wurde.

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