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The scientific study of complex systems has transformed a wide range of disciplines in recent years, enabling researchers in both the natural and social sciences to model and predict phenomena as diverse as earthquakes, global warming, demographic patterns, financial crises, and the failure of materials. In this book, Didier Sornette boldly applies his varied experience in these areas to propose a simple, powerful, and general theory of how, why, and when stock markets crash. Most attempts to explain market failures seek to pinpoint triggering mechanisms that occur hours, days, or weeks before the collapse. Sornette proposes a radically different view: the underlying cause can be sought months and even years before the abrupt, catastrophic event in the build-up of cooperative speculation, which often translates into an accelerating rise of the market price, otherwise known as a "bubble." Anchoring his sophisticated, step-by-step analysis in leading-edge physical and statistical modeling techniques, he unearths remarkable insights and some predictions--among them, that the "end of the growth era" will occur around 2050. Sornette probes major historical precedents, from the decades-long "tulip mania" in the Netherlands that wilted suddenly in 1637 to the South Sea Bubble that ended with the first huge market crash in England in 1720, to the Great Crash of October 1929 and Black Monday in 1987, to cite just a few. He concludes that most explanations other than cooperative self-organization fail to account for the subtle bubbles by which the markets lay the groundwork for catastrophe. Any investor or investment professional who seeks a genuine understanding of looming financial disasters should read this book. Physicists, geologists, biologists, economists, and others will welcome Why Stock Markets Crash as a highly original "scientific tale," as Sornette aptly puts it, of the exciting and sometimes fearsome--but no longer quite so unfathomable--world of stock markets.
This title brings together frontier research on complex economic systems, heterogeneous interacting agents, bounded rationality, and nonlinear dynamics in economics. The book contains the proceedings of the CEF2015 (21st Computing in Economics in Finance), held 20-22 June 2015 in Taipei, Taiwan, and addresses some of the important driving forces for various emergent properties in economies, when viewed as complex systems. The breakthroughs reported in this book are a result of an interdisciplinary approach and simulation remains the unifying theme for these papers as they deal with a wide range of topics in economics. The text is a valuable addition to the efforts in promoting the complex systems view in economic science. The computational experiments reported in the book are both transparent and replicable. Complex System Modeling and Simulation in Economics and Finance is useful for graduate courses of complex systems, with particular focus on economics and finance. At the same time it serves as a good overview for researchers who are interested in the topic.
European Financial Systems in the Global Economy provides an overview of sources of finance, types of financial intermediation and financial systems in Europe and their relative importance in the world economy. It describes market mechanisms and prices and gives a broad introduction to the relevant regional financial and monetary issues (including those countries that will join the EU in the future) and makes an ideal primer for those new to the world of finance.
Zipf’s law is one of the few quantitative reproducible regularities found in e- nomics. It states that, for most countries, the size distributions of cities and of rms (with additional examples found in many other scienti c elds) are power laws with a speci c exponent: the number of cities and rms with a size greater thanS is inversely proportional toS. Most explanations start with Gibrat’s law of proportional growth but need to incorporate additional constraints and ingredients introducing deviations from it. Here, we present a general theoretical derivation of Zipf’s law, providing a synthesis and extension of previous approaches. First, we show that combining Gibrat’s law at all rm levels with random processes of rm’s births and deaths yield Zipf’s law under a “balance” condition between a rm’s growth and death rate. We nd that Gibrat’s law of proportionate growth does not need to be strictly satis ed. As long as the volatility of rms’ sizes increase asy- totically proportionally to the size of the rm and that the instantaneous growth rate increases not faster than the volatility, the distribution of rm sizes follows Zipf’s law. This suggests that the occurrence of very large rms in the distri- tion of rm sizes described by Zipf’s law is more a consequence of random growth than systematic returns: in particular, for large rms, volatility must dominate over the instantaneous growth rate.
Hedge funds are now the largest volume players in the capital markets. They follow a wide assortment of strategies but their activities have replaced and overshadowed the traditional model of the long only portfolio manager. Many of the traditional technical indicators and commonly accepted trading strategies have become obsolete or ineffective. The focus throughout the book is to describe the principal innovations that have been made within the equity markets over the last several years and that have changed the ground rules for trading activities. By understanding these changes the active trader is far better equipped to profit in today’s more complex and risky markets. Long/Short Market Dynamics includes: A completely new technique, Comparative Quantiles Analysis, for identifying market turning points is introduced. It is based on statistical techniques that can be used to recognize money flow and price/momentum divergences that can provide substantial profit opportunities. Power laws, regime shifts, self-organized criticality, phase transitions, network dynamics, econophysics, algorithmic trading and other ideas from the science of complexity are examined. All are described as concretely as possible and avoiding unnecessary mathematics and formalism. Alpha generation, portfolio construction, hedge ratios, and beta neutral portfolios are illustrated with case studies and worked examples. Episodes of financial contagion are illustrated with a proposed explanation of their origins within underlying market dynamics
Er hat die Technologieblase vorhergesagt und vor der Immobilienblase warnte er ebenfalls frühzeitig. Nun analysiert Wirtschafts-Nobelpreisträger Robert Shiller die aktuelle Situation an den Finanzmärkten – und warnt erneut. Mit seiner Theorie des "Irrationalen Überschwangs" zeigt Nobelpreisträger Robert Shiller, dass Euphorie seitens der Akteure die Märkte auf unhaltbare und gefährliche Niveaus treiben kann. So geschehen in den Jahren 2000 bei der Hightechblase und 2007/2008 bei der Subprimeblase, die Shiller präzise vorhergesagt hat. Dies ist die dritte, aktualisierte und erweiterte Auflage seines Klassikers. Shiller bezieht hier erstmals auch den Anleihenmarkt ein und gibt Empfehlungen, was die Individuen und die Politik im Lichte der aktuellen Situation an den Finanzmärkten tun sollten.

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